There are statistics that evidence that a substantial number of Chapter 11 plans fail, and that even in cases in which a plan is confirmed, the reorganized debtor fails shortly after confirmation.
An explanation for the phenomenon is contained in a theory that has become known as "The Berman Hook." Envision a hook: a line straight down, a perpendicular line at the bottom with another line headed up. Think of a fishhook.
The Berman Hook Theory incorporates the previously expressed viewpoint that timing can be everything. Like "location, location, location," the manta is, "timing, timing, timing" for debtors.
The theory is simple: during the period of declining business, the entity survives by using its capital (cash, inventory, accounts receivable) and available credit to survive. Debt is incurred and continues to be incurred during the downturn and at the leveling off phase. The cash flow and capital crisis really occurs when the business turns around and new capital and credit are required for new inventory, (or to finance the production of new product,) and to finance the accounts receivable created by new sales. The real crisis occurs when capital is depleted, debt is the highest and demands for capital, cash and credit are newly needed. A classic scenario.
The theory suggests that the filing of a petition in bankruptcy provides little long term relief when filed in the downward spiral but is best exercised when there is a realty of a fresh start, i.e. when relief from existing debts can be most beneficial. A successfully reorganized debtor is relieved of the burden of incurring additional debt and has the opportunity to engage in business when there is an opportunity to succeed. A simple, pragmatic theory.
And the concept is equally applicable to individuals. Timing is everything. You should not seek recourse in Bankruptcy Court until you have bottomed out. By means of example, you’re best advised not to file before you have the operation and will be out of work for a prolonged time or are unemployed with no early prospect of employment. Timing can be everything.
While the theory is valid, there are, of course, unusual circumstances under which you don’t have the luxury of choosing the time.
by: Eugene B. Berman, Esq.
